The global shipping industry sails through turbulent waters in 2025, where beneath seemingly calm surfaces lurk powerful undercurrents reshaping maritime trade. Veson Nautical's latest forecasts serve as navigational charts, revealing potential routes through these challenging conditions.
Container Shipping: Slowing Demand Meets Downward Price Pressure
The ripple effects of U.S. tariff policies continue to influence global trade patterns. Veson Nautical projects container demand growth (measured in TEU-miles) will slow to 2.4% in 2025, with average annual growth stabilizing around 3% over the next three years—a marked deceleration from historical trends.
While Red Sea disruptions initially boosted freight rates through rerouted shipping lanes, these effects have largely been absorbed by the market. Current rate stability masks emerging challenges: with demand growth lagging behind capacity expansion, analysts anticipate downward pressure on freight rates beginning in 2026. Shipping companies must navigate these conditions with precision to maintain competitiveness.
Capacity Expansion: Newbuild Wave Threatens Market Balance
The industry absorbed 4.3 million TEU of new vessel deliveries in 2024 and early 2025 without rate disruption, primarily through carriers strategically reducing average speeds by 2.3% to constrain capacity. However, this temporary solution faces limitations as Veson Nautical forecasts average fleet growth of 8.7% annually between 2025-2028, driven by record newbuild deliveries.
Following net fleet growth of 5.5% (2023) and 9.7% (2024), the projected addition of approximately 10 million TEU in new capacity over coming years—including 3.3 million TEU scheduled for 2025—threatens to overwhelm modest demand growth, potentially creating significant oversupply conditions.
Geopolitical Turbulence: Risks and Opportunities
Geopolitical storms continue to buffet global shipping. EU bans on Russian oil imports and Suez Canal diversions have extended shipping distances, tightening vessel supply and supporting current rates—while simultaneously increasing market volatility.
A growing "shadow fleet" transporting sanctioned crude and products from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela—primarily to China and India—has displaced traditional tonnage demand, adding market complexity. Potential sanctions enforcement against this gray market could benefit compliant operators through improved earnings and rate expectations.
Tanker Markets: Structural Shifts Challenge Demand
While geopolitical disruptions temporarily boosted tanker demand (measured in ton-miles), structural headwinds grow stronger. Peak oil demand concerns combine with improving engine efficiency, electrification trends, fuel switching programs, and remote work adoption to pressure transportation fuel demand, suggesting slowing long-term growth.
Dry Bulk: Stable Rates Amid Balanced Conditions
Years of restrained fleet growth and steady demand have created relatively balanced conditions in dry bulk shipping. Despite global economic uncertainties, annual freight rates remain stable.
Declining iron ore and coal production is partially offset by emerging long-haul trades, particularly the new Guinea-China iron ore route originating from Simandou mines. Combined with ongoing Red Sea diversions, these developments support ton-mile demand and market strength.
Gas Markets: Expanding Export Capacity
LNG shipping benefits from supply growth, with U.S. LPG exports rising 10.9% (2024) alongside 4.5% production growth. Middle Eastern exports increased 6.5% despite reduced oil output. Terminal expansions and new LNG projects through 2028 promise further export capacity increases, creating new opportunities for gas carriers.
Conclusion: Volume Growth Meets Rate Stability
The 2025 shipping landscape appears poised for "volume growth with rate stability," yet this surface calm conceals significant challenges. Tariff policies, geopolitical risks, capacity expansion, and structural shifts will reshape market dynamics. Successful operators will combine vigilant market monitoring with strategic agility to navigate these complex conditions.