Imagine a future factory where highly automated systems work with precision and efficiency, dramatically boosting productivity. The reality, however, presents a paradox: while the global number of operational industrial robots has reached a record 2.7 million units, sales growth of new robots is slowing. What does this signify—market saturation or the brewing of new opportunities?
I. Current Market Landscape: Opportunities and Challenges
According to the International Federation of Robotics' (IFR) 2020 World Robotics Report , global sales of new industrial robots reached 373,000 units in 2019—the third-highest annual figure on record but a 12% decline from 2018. Meanwhile, the total installed base grew by 12% to 2.7 million units, while collaborative robot (cobot) installations rose by 11%.
This creates a dynamic of "growing stock, slowing flow." While businesses increasingly recognize the value of robotic automation, the deceleration in new sales suggests a market adjustment period.
II. Analyzing the Slowdown: Automotive and Electronics Sector Pressures
The IFR attributes the sales decline primarily to challenges in the automotive and electronics industries—traditionally the largest buyers of industrial robots. Global economic shifts, accelerated technological disruption, and intensifying competition have created transformation pressures, reducing investment appetite.
Asia—particularly China—remains the largest regional market, but 2019 saw a one-third reduction in robot sales there, significantly impacting global figures. This likely reflects U.S.-China trade tensions, China's economic restructuring, and broader regional growth moderation.
III. Collaborative Robots: A Bright Spot in the Market
Despite the broader slowdown, cobots demonstrated remarkable resilience. Installations reached 18,049 units in 2019, representing 4.8% of total robot deployments—up from 2.8% in 2017.
Cobots excel through flexibility, user-friendliness, and safety features enabling direct human collaboration without extensive safety barriers. These characteristics make them ideal for small-to-midsize enterprises and operations requiring frequent production line changes.
The IFR notes that cobot growth stems from expanding supplier ecosystems and application diversity. Beyond traditional assembly and material handling, cobots now serve grinding, painting, inspection, and other specialized functions.
IV. Regional Perspectives: U.S. Maintains Leadership
The United States remains the Western Hemisphere's dominant industrial robot user with 293,000 operational units, followed by Mexico and Canada. However, U.S. new installations declined 17% year-over-year, mirroring global trends.
V. Future Outlook: Economic Recovery as the Catalyst
IFR President Milton Guerry observes that substantial robot orders are unlikely before late 2020, with demand potentially not recovering to pre-crisis levels until 2022-2023.
This extended timeline suggests businesses should explore alternative growth vectors:
• Sector diversification: Expanding beyond automotive and electronics into food/beverage, pharmaceuticals, logistics, and agriculture.
• Intelligent automation: Leveraging AI, IoT, and big data to enhance robotic perception, decision-making, and operational adaptability.
• Service innovation: Transitioning from traditional sales to Robotics-as-a-Service (RaaS) models to reduce upfront costs and increase flexibility.
• Talent development: Addressing industry needs for robotics engineers, software developers, and system integrators through academic and vocational partnerships.
VI. Strategic Adaptation in a Shifting Market
Rather than viewing the 2.7 million-unit installed base as saturation, industry participants might reframe it as an ecosystem ripe for optimization and secondary innovation. The path forward involves not just technological advancement but strategic and business model evolution.
As automation becomes increasingly integral to manufacturing, the current market recalibration may ultimately strengthen the industry's foundation for its next growth phase.