In the complex chessboard of global trade, every cargo ship's voyage and every import-export data release moves the pieces that shape economic trajectories. Descartes Systems Group, a leading North American logistics software provider, has released its latest Global Shipping Report analyzing U.S. November import data and projecting annual trends. The findings paint a picture of surprising resilience amid emerging challenges.
November Import Data: Monthly Dip, Annual Strength
The 40th edition of Descartes' Global Shipping Report reveals U.S. container imports reached 2,368,758 TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units) in November, marking a 5% decrease from October but a 12.3% year-over-year increase. This breaks a four-month streak of imports exceeding 2.4 million TEU, raising industry attention.
Descartes identifies 2.4 million TEU as a critical threshold for U.S. maritime logistics. Exceeding this level risks port congestion and delays reminiscent of pandemic-era disruptions. The November decline may therefore relieve pressure at major ports.
Notably, compared to pre-pandemic November 2019, current imports show 24.6% growth, demonstrating sustained demand despite geopolitical tensions and economic headwinds.
Annual Import Volume: Surpassing 2023 Imminent
With year-to-date imports reaching 25,829,192 TEU—already 871,552 TEU (3.5%) above 2023's total—the report confirms 2024 will set a new annual record. This performance injects optimism into global trade, signaling enduring U.S. economic resilience and consumer demand.
For exporting nations, strong U.S. imports provide crucial economic support amid global slowdown pressures. The data suggests American businesses continue restocking inventories while consumers maintain spending despite inflation.
Trade Partners: China Maintains Dominance
China remains America's largest trading partner, with November imports totaling 887,781 TEU. While this reflects a 7.5% monthly decrease, it represents 13.3% annual growth. Notably, Chinese imports had exceeded 900,000 TEU for five consecutive months prior.
Descartes emphasizes this underscores strengthened 2024 U.S.-China trade compared to 2023, when monthly imports never surpassed 900,000 TEU. The data reveals enduring economic interdependence despite ongoing trade tensions.
Expert Analysis: Strong Peak Season Performance
"Traditionally, November shows weaker performance than October," noted Descartes Industry Strategy Director Jackson Wood. "But compared to the past six years, this November's month-over-month decline was the smallest at 125,877 TEU. While some early shipments may reflect tariff and labor uncertainty preparations, 2024's peak season imports remain exceptionally strong."
Wood's analysis suggests underlying demand remains robust despite potential inventory adjustments by importers.
Emerging Risks: Tariffs, Labor, Geopolitics
While affirming 2024's strong import performance, Descartes warns of potential disruptions:
• New tariffs: Potential trade policy shifts under the incoming administration could increase import costs.
• Labor negotiations: Stalled ILA/USMX contract talks risk East and Gulf Coast port strikes.
• Middle East conflicts: Ongoing tensions may disrupt shipping lanes and increase freight costs.
Port Performance Variations
Top U.S. ports saw a collective 6.6% monthly import decline (140,242 TEU), with Tacoma as the sole gainer (+6.6%). Largest decreases occurred at:
• Long Beach (-64,187 TEU, 13.4%)
• New York/New Jersey (-43,969 TEU, 12.4%)
• Los Angeles (-12,888 TEU, 2.8%)
Country-of-Origin Shifts
Imports from top ten origins fell 6.4% (116,104 TEU) monthly. Germany (+5,950 TEU) and Italy (+3,693 TEU) led gains, while China (-72,335 TEU), Vietnam (-27,148 TEU), and Thailand (-12,774 TEU) saw largest declines.
Port Delays: Mixed Trends
Among top ports, Los Angeles and Long Beach experienced maximum delay increases (1 day), while Houston showed greatest improvement (-0.9 days).
Strategic Implications
The report presents a nuanced outlook—demonstrating market resilience while highlighting vulnerabilities. Businesses must balance opportunity capture with risk mitigation through:
• Policy monitoring: Tracking trade and labor developments
• Supply chain diversification: Reducing single-source dependencies
• Logistics partnerships: Enhancing efficiency through technology adoption
As global trade faces mounting uncertainties, Descartes' data provides critical visibility for navigating 2024's complex supply chain landscape.