The trucking market in July typically experiences what industry experts call a "seasonal adjustment." Much like the weather during this month—fluctuating between intense heat and sudden storms—the freight market undergoes its own natural rhythms. This isn't indicative of a market collapse but rather reflects the cyclical nature of transportation demand.
1. DAT Truckload Volume Index: The Market Barometer
The DAT Truckload Volume Index (TVI) serves as a crucial indicator for measuring monthly freight volume changes. Standardized with January 2015 as the baseline (100), the TVI tracks three primary freight types:
- Dry van: General freight without temperature control
- Reefer: Temperature-sensitive shipments
- Flatbed: Oversized or irregularly shaped cargo
2. July's Key Market Metrics
Dry Van Sector
The dry van TVI declined 7.0% month-over-month to 226, representing a 3.0% year-over-year decrease. This suggests softening consumer demand or increased inventory levels for general merchandise.
Reefer Market
Despite a 3.4% monthly decrease to 169, reefer volumes achieved a July record, up 1.2% annually. Strong demand persisted for perishable foods, pharmaceuticals, and seasonal commodities.
Flatbed Performance
The most significant monthly decline occurred in flatbed (12.8% to 238), though volumes remained 3.5% above July 2022 levels. This reflects potential slowdowns in construction and manufacturing sectors.
3. Spot Market Dynamics
Spot rates across all segments declined:
- Dry van: $2.07/mile (-$0.01 monthly, -$0.56 annually)
- Reefer: $2.44/mile (-$0.03 monthly, -$0.60 annually)
- Flatbed: $2.54/mile (-$0.07 monthly, -$0.72 annually)
This downward pressure indicates excess capacity in the marketplace.
4. Fuel Surcharges and Operating Costs
Rising diesel prices added operational pressures:
- Dry van: $0.44/mile (+$0.02)
- Reefer: $0.48/mile
- Flatbed: $0.53/mile
5. Market Balance Indicators
The load-to-truck ratios showed market softening:
- Dry van: 2.6 (vs. 3.8 in July 2022)
- Reefer: 3.8 (vs. 7.2 in July 2022)
- Flatbed: 7.1 (vs. 21.8 in July 2022)
6. Contract Rate Variations
Contract pricing showed mixed movements:
- Dry van: $2.57/mile (-$0.01)
- Reefer: $2.91/mile (+$0.03)
- Flatbed: $3.29/mile (+$0.05)
7. Expert Analysis: A Tale of Two Markets
DAT Chief Analyst Ken Adamo characterized July as "two months in one"—a strong start followed by typical seasonal softening. He noted that fuel price volatility created unexpected challenges during what's traditionally a slower period.
"The market behaved almost exactly as historical patterns suggested," Adamo observed. "The wildcard was fuel costs—without that pressure, July's performance might have appeared stronger."
Regarding capacity, Adamo suggested the market may follow 2019 patterns through autumn, with most industry participants anticipating improvement later in the year.
8. Market Outlook
July's trucking market presented both challenges and opportunities:
- Shippers benefited from lower rates and available capacity
- Carriers faced compressed margins amid rising operational costs
- Brokers navigated an increasingly competitive environment
The seasonal pause offers market participants time to optimize operations before the anticipated fall peak season. Understanding these cyclical patterns remains essential for strategic planning in the transportation sector.