The latest DAT Truckload Volume Index (TVI) indicates a seasonal cooling in the freight market during July, with key metrics showing declines across most segments. While this presents challenges for carriers, analysts suggest the data also reveals opportunities for strategic adaptation.
DAT Index: The Barometer of Freight Markets
The DAT Truckload Volume Index serves as a critical market indicator, tracking monthly changes in truckload freight volumes to reflect supply-demand dynamics. Using January 2015 as its baseline (100), the TVI provides reliable comparisons by eliminating distortions from new data sources. The index covers three primary equipment types: dry van, refrigerated (reefer), and flatbed trucks.
July Data: Seasonal Adjustments Reshape Market Dynamics
July figures show declines following partial growth in June, primarily attributed to seasonal patterns:
- Dry Van: TVI at 226, down 7.0% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year
- Reefer: TVI at 169, decreasing 3.4% monthly but gaining 1.2% annually. Notably, reefer volumes reached record highs due to seasonal demand for perishables, frozen goods, and construction materials.
- Flatbed: TVI at 238, showing a 12.8% monthly decline but 3.5% annual growth
Spot Rates: Continued Downward Pressure
Spot market rates declined across all equipment types, intensifying pressure on carriers:
- Dry Van: $2.07/mile (down $0.01 monthly, $0.56 annually)
- Reefer: $2.44/mile (down $0.03 monthly, $0.60 annually)
- Flatbed: $2.54/mile (down $0.07 monthly, $0.72 annually)
Linehaul rates (excluding fuel surcharges) also decreased:
- Dry Van: $1.63/mile (down $0.02)
- Reefer: $1.96/mile (down $0.05)
- Flatbed: $2.01/mile (down $0.09)
Fuel Surcharges: Compounding Cost Pressures
Rising fuel surcharges further squeezed carrier margins:
- Dry Van: $0.44/mile (up $0.02)
- Reefer: $0.48/mile
- Flatbed: $0.53/mile
Load-to-Truck Ratios: Widening Supply-Demand Imbalance
July ratios remained below 2022 levels, indicating excess capacity:
- Dry Van: 2.6 (flat monthly, down from 3.8 in July 2022)
- Reefer: 3.8 (flat monthly, down from 7.2 in July 2022)
- Flatbed: 7.1 (down from 9.7 in June and 21.8 in July 2022)
Contract Rates: Mixed Movements Reflect Market Tensions
Unlike uniform spot rate declines, contract rates showed variability:
- Dry Van: $2.57/mile (down $0.01)
- Reefer: $2.91/mile (up $0.03)
- Flatbed: $3.29/mile (up $0.05)
Expert Analysis: Navigating Market Headwinds
DAT Chief Analyst Ken Adamo characterized July's performance as expected seasonally, though fuel price increases created additional pressure. He described July as "a tale of two months" with strong early performance followed by softening.
"The current capacity situation, while negative, aligns with historical patterns," Adamo noted. "We anticipate conditions resembling 2019's trajectory through fall."
Adamo emphasized that current pricing strategies reflect anticipation of future market improvements rather than immediate conditions, with carriers and brokers positioning for eventual rate increases.
Strategic Recommendations for Market Participants
Industry professionals should consider:
- Monitoring market indicators like the DAT TVI for real-time insights
- Implementing rigorous cost optimization measures
- Developing flexible pricing models responsive to market shifts
- Enhancing service differentiation to maintain customer relationships
- Exploring operational diversification to mitigate sector-specific risks
While current conditions present challenges, historical patterns suggest market recovery typically follows seasonal lows, with strategic operators positioned to capitalize on eventual improvements.