As aircraft trace their paths across the sky, the aviation industry faces mounting pressure to reduce its environmental footprint. The International Air Transport Association's (IATA) latest report reveals both progress and persistent challenges in the adoption of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), highlighting a critical gap between current production levels and what's needed to meet climate targets.
Production Doubles Yet Remains Insufficient
IATA's December 6 report shows global SAF production reached an estimated 600 million liters (500,000 metric tons) in 2023—double 2022's output of 300 million liters. More strikingly, 2024 projections suggest production could triple to 1.875 billion liters (1.5 million metric tons).
However, these optimistic figures mask a sobering reality: SAF accounts for just 3% of total renewable fuel production this year, with 97% allocated to other industries. While this share may rise to 6% in 2024, it remains far below the 25-30% threshold aviation requires to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.
Global Framework Sets Ambitious Targets
The Third Conference on Aviation Alternative Fuels (CAAF/3), convened by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), established a global framework to boost SAF production across all regions. The agreement aims to reduce international aviation's fuel carbon intensity by 5% by 2030—requiring approximately 17.5 billion liters (14 million metric tons) of SAF annually.
"Governments want aviation to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050," Walsh emphasized. "Having set an interim target at CAAF/3, they now need to implement policy measures that can achieve the exponential increase in SAF production needed."
Demand Outpaces Supply
Market demand presents no barrier to SAF adoption—every drop produced in 2023 was purchased and used, with airlines paying an additional $756 million for the cleaner fuel. At least 43 carriers have committed to using about 16.25 billion liters (13 million metric tons) by 2030, with commitments growing steadily.
The true challenge lies in unlocking supply. Global renewable fuel production could exceed 78 billion liters (63 million metric tons) by 2029. IATA urges governments to establish policy frameworks that incentivize producers to allocate 25-30% of output to SAF, aligning with ICAO targets and existing regional policies.
Policy Recommendations for Scaling Production
To accelerate SAF development, IATA proposes a multipronged policy approach:
- Encourage traditional oil companies to invest in SAF , leveraging their technical and financial resources
- Adjust renewable fuel incentives to prioritize SAF production
- Diversify feedstocks and production locations to reduce reliance on single sources
- Support high-potential production projects to drive innovation and scale
- Establish global SAF accounting standards to ensure transparency
Beyond HEFA: The Need for Feedstock Diversity
About 85% of SAF will likely come from Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) technology through 2028, using limited-supply feedstocks like inedible animal fats and used cooking oil. IATA recommends:
- Increasing production via certified pathways like Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) and Fischer-Tropsch (FT) synthesis using bio/agricultural waste
- Accelerating investment in and certification of emerging SAF technologies
- Exploring additional sustainable feedstocks, including those offering environmental co-benefits
Public Backing for Greener Skies
Recent IATA surveys reveal strong public support for SAF, with 86% of travelers endorsing government production incentives and prioritizing airline access to SAF over other industries. This demonstrates widespread recognition of aviation's sustainability challenges and willingness to support solutions.
The path to greener aviation requires coordinated action—policy leadership to incentivize production, industry innovation to scale technologies, and public engagement to sustain momentum. Only through such collaboration can contrails become symbols of progress rather than environmental concern.