After enduring three years of plummeting rates and shrinking profit margins, logistics industry leaders may finally see glimmers of hope on the horizon. The latest Freight Index Report from TD Cowen and AFS Logistics suggests that market dynamics are beginning to favor large carriers across various transportation modes.
The joint report, which analyzes vast amounts of shipping data through machine learning models while incorporating macroeconomic factors, provides both a comprehensive look at past performance and projections for the coming quarter. Notably, it suggests that carriers who survived the period of depressed rates may begin seeing returns by 2026.
Trucking: Early Signs of Recovery Amid Weak Demand
The trucking market shows nascent recovery signals as carrier exits, industry consolidation, and stricter commercial driver's license requirements create downward pressure on capacity. In Q4 2025, the truck-per-mile rate index reached 7.6% above the January 2018 baseline—the first time exceeding 7% since Q1 2023.
However, demand remains sluggish. The American Trucking Associations' tonnage index rose just 0.2% in November 2025 after significant declines in preceding months. The parallel decline in cost per shipment (-8.6%) and miles per shipment (-10%) suggests market stabilization amid flat demand.
Projections indicate the truck-per-mile rate index will remain relatively stable in Q1 2026 at 7.4% above baseline—a slight sequential decline but 1.1% year-over-year improvement, suggesting gradual upward momentum.
Less-Than-Truckload: Pricing Discipline Drives Resilience
Less-than-truckload (LTL) transportation has maintained costs over 40% above January 2018 levels despite a 20% drop in shipment weights since Q2 2022. This demonstrates carriers' exceptional pricing strategies and operational efficiency even as U.S. manufacturing activity contracts.
The LTL per-pound rate index hit a record high in Q4 2025 at 67.9% above baseline. While projected to dip slightly to 66.1% in Q1 2026, this would mark the ninth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth, showcasing remarkable sector resilience.
Parcel Shipping: Surcharges Push Costs to Record Highs
Ground parcel costs per piece reached historic highs in Q4 2025, driven by both volume increases and fundamental changes in carrier pricing strategies. Average surcharges grew 13% sequentially, influenced by seasonal residential delivery spikes and the introduction of a new "universal" demand surcharge applied broadly rather than targeting specific cost drivers.
The ground parcel per-piece rate index stood at 34.1% above baseline in Q4 2025, with further increases expected due to general rate increases (GRIs) that include new dimensional rating logic. The index is projected to reach 38.9% in Q1 2026—a 5.4% annual increase.
Express parcels followed similar trends, with Q4 2025 costs exceeding expectations due to surcharges, residential deliveries, and higher average billable weights. Carriers now apply a 40-pound minimum billable weight for parcels requiring additional handling, regardless of actual weight. Express rates are expected to rise from 5% above baseline in Q4 2025 to 7.6% in Q1 2026.
Market Outlook: Cautious Optimism Prevails
While the report identifies positive signals across transportation modes, full market recovery remains contingent on stronger demand-side drivers. The data suggests shippers who adapt to evolving market conditions, optimize operations, and cultivate strong logistics partnerships will be best positioned for the anticipated 2026 rebound.