Imagine a never-stopping logistics machine where over 2,700 parcels traverse the globe every second, connecting businesses with consumers and weaving an intricate web of global commerce. This staggering figure represents more than just cold statistics—it vividly illustrates the explosive growth of e-commerce worldwide and serves as compelling evidence of rapidly evolving consumption patterns.
In this era of constant change, understanding the pulse of e-commerce logistics requires reliable metrics. The recently released Pitney Bowes Parcel Shipping Index serves as precisely such an invaluable industry report. Functioning like a precision radar, it clearly maps global parcel volume growth trajectories while forecasting the future direction of e-commerce logistics, providing strategic insights for shipping companies and offering crucial perspectives on the evolution of global trade and consumption models.
Surging Parcel Volumes: 2018's Remarkable Data and Future Projections
The Pitney Bowes Parcel Shipping Index represents years of accumulated data analysis rather than an isolated snapshot. Since 2015, Pitney Bowes has continuously tracked and analyzed parcel shipping data across major global markets, covering 13 countries—Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Norway, Sweden, the UK, and the US—across various shipping types including B2B, B2C, C2B, and C2C. The index exclusively tracks parcels weighing up to 31.5kg (70lbs) to ensure data accuracy and representativeness.
These 13 nations collectively represent 3.7 billion people, making their parcel activities highly indicative of global e-commerce logistics trends. Through comprehensive analysis, Pitney Bowes has drawn several remarkable conclusions.
In 2018, global parcel volume reached an astonishing 87 billion units, marking a 17% increase from 2017's 74 billion and setting a new historical record. This staggering figure means hundreds of millions of parcels circulate daily across the planet. Despite global trade uncertainties, Pitney Bowes projects global parcel volume will exceed 200 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.7% between 2019-2023.
This projection reflects careful analysis rather than optimism. Previous reports predicted 17%-28% annual growth, with 2018's 17% increase fitting this range, confirming that global e-commerce logistics remains in rapid expansion.
In 2018, these 13 major markets averaged 23 parcels per person annually—equating to 2,760 parcels shipped every second. The report forecasts global parcel volume surpassing 100 billion in 2020, marking a milestone in e-commerce logistics development.
China dominates global parcel volumes, with 51 billion units shipped in 2018 at 26% annual growth. Excluding China, global volume grew just 6% to 36 billion, underscoring China's pivotal role and its e-commerce market's enormous potential.
Revenue and Growth: Divergent Competition Between the US and China
Rising parcel volumes naturally drive revenue growth. Global parcel revenue reached $317 billion in 2018, up 13% year-over-year, reflecting the sector's enormous value and intensifying competition.
The US, among the world's largest consumer markets, processed 13 billion parcels in 2018, second only to China. However, while China leads in volume, the US outperforms in revenue—$119 billion versus China's $91 billion—suggesting American logistics companies command premium pricing through superior services.
This divergence reflects different market maturity levels. China's e-commerce market, though younger, has expanded explosively with intense price competition, while the more established US market prioritizes service differentiation to meet sophisticated consumer demands.
Key Additional Findings: Emerging Markets Rise Amid Growth Slowdown Concerns
The report reveals several other critical insights about global e-commerce logistics:
- China's extraordinary growth: From 2013-2018, China's parcel sector achieved 41% CAGR. Though 2018's 26% growth slowed from 2012-2016's 48%-61% rates, expansion remains robust, indicating substantial remaining potential.
- Brazil's significant expansion: As Latin America's largest economy, Brazil saw 25% year-over-year parcel growth from 2017-2018, revealing promising e-commerce opportunities.
- India's rapid development: The populous nation achieved 25% CAGR from 2013-2018 with 21% year-over-year growth, positioning it as a future global logistics growth engine.
These findings demonstrate emerging markets' growing importance as e-commerce logistics drivers. As their economies develop and internet access expands, these regions will unlock greater e-commerce potential, offering logistics firms new opportunities.
However, China's slowing growth raises concerns. As its e-commerce market matures, competition intensifies, presenting logistics companies with challenges around service quality, cost efficiency, and sustainable development.
From Internal Research to Industry Insight: Pitney Bowes' Transformation
The Parcel Shipping Index gained attention not only for its authoritative data but also for its backstory. Originally an internal Pitney Bowes study to understand market trends for strategic planning, the company recognized its broader industry value.
Jason Dies, Executive Vice President of Pitney Bowes' Sending Technology Solutions, noted: "We're deeply focused on shipping, so understanding key market trends matters. This data proved exceptionally insightful about these patterns."
Dies observed that 2018 data proved particularly noteworthy given heightened global trade uncertainties, reflected in China's growth moderation—though still healthy, with revenue keeping pace with volume.
This evolution mirrors modern corporate trends. In our information-rich era, businesses must convert internal knowledge into external value, as Pitney Bowes successfully demonstrated.
Key Growth Drivers: E-Commerce, Retail, and Beyond
Global parcel growth stems from multiple factors. When asked about primary drivers, Dies identified two dimensions.
"The obvious answer is e-commerce and retail's continued expansion," he said. "Consumer expectations keep rising. While free shipping still outweighs speed for many, delivery timelines have compressed dramatically—from 7-10 days historically to 2-3 days now."
E-commerce's rapid development remains the dominant growth engine. Expanding internet access and improved platforms draw more consumers online, generating sustained parcel volume increases.
However, Dies highlighted less visible growth from non-retail sectors: "Office shipping in IT, healthcare, and manufacturing shows remarkable growth. Currently, e-commerce and office shipping volumes are roughly equal. While retail growth won't stop, office shipping will continue expanding rapidly."
This perspective warrants attention. Traditional logistics thinking often overlooks non-retail sectors' potential. As economies develop and industries evolve, these sectors present logistics firms with high-value opportunities.
Potential Risks: Global Uncertainty and Protectionism
Despite bright prospects, e-commerce logistics faces challenges. Dies quickly noted unprecedented global economic uncertainty.
"Tariffs significantly impacted the past year," he said. "We observe—though it's difficult to quantify—that some nations near China have increased China-origin parcel volumes shipped overland to circumvent tariffs. Smaller countries may show exponential growth, though our origin-focused methodology masks this. Macro-economically, we're seeing shipments routed through previously unused locations."
Global uncertainty remains the foremost risk factor. Rising protectionism and tariffs could negatively affect trade and parcel volumes. Dies also cited Brexit and European uncertainties, though noting their impacts remain challenging to quantify.
Logistics firms must therefore monitor global conditions closely, adapt flexibly, and collaborate with governments and businesses to maintain free trade and economic health.
The Future of E-Commerce Logistics: Opportunities and Challenges
The Pitney Bowes Index reveals not just parcel growth but profound changes in global commerce. For logistics companies, it provides strategic guidance for seizing opportunities while addressing challenges:
- Capitalize on emerging markets: China, Brazil, and India drive global growth. Firms should increase investments, expand operations, and localize services to meet regional needs.
- Enhance service value: While China leads in volume, the US outperforms in revenue, suggesting service quality and differentiation boost profitability. Companies should optimize logistics, personalize services, and strengthen support.
- Explore non-retail sectors: IT, healthcare, and manufacturing show strong growth. Logistics firms should understand industry-specific needs, expand service offerings, and build partnerships.
- Address global uncertainty: Economic volatility poses risks. Companies should strengthen risk management, diversify operations, and foster collaborations to enhance resilience.
Looking ahead, e-commerce logistics will evolve toward greater intelligence, sustainability, globalization, personalization, and collaboration. Only through continuous innovation and cooperation can the industry overcome challenges and achieve healthy development.