Imagine a future where every product carries a detailed "carbon footprint" label, tracking greenhouse gas emissions from production to disposal. This isn't science fiction—it's fast becoming reality. The 2026 China Chief Economists Forum Annual Meeting delivered a clear message: carbon accounting is creating massive commercial opportunities, and businesses must act now or risk being left behind.
Over the next five years, China's economy will undergo seven major transformations, with the "dual carbon" strategy (carbon peak and carbon neutrality) profoundly influencing corporate development and investment directions.
New Challenges for Businesses Under "Dual Carbon" Goals
First, China's carbon peak initiative is entering a critical phase. National carbon dioxide emissions are expected to peak around 2030 before gradually declining. This means companies must urgently develop emission reduction plans or face increasingly stringent policy constraints.
Second, China's carbon governance system is becoming more comprehensive. Within five years, the government will establish a governance framework covering six key areas:
- Local government carbon targets: Regional authorities will bear emission reduction responsibilities, requiring businesses to monitor local policy changes closely.
- Corporate carbon management requirements: Companies must establish robust carbon emission management systems, including carbon inventories and reduction roadmaps.
- Carbon assessments for new projects: Construction projects will require carbon impact evaluations, with high-emission initiatives facing restrictions.
- Product lifecycle carbon accounting: Full carbon footprint calculations will become mandatory, with consumers increasingly favoring low-carbon products.
- International carbon rule alignment: China's integration with global carbon standards means exporters must prepare for carbon tariffs and green trade barriers.
The foundation of this system lies in establishing unified, credible, and comparable carbon accounting standards—encompassing calculation models, monitoring technologies, data collection, and third-party verification. Only with this infrastructure can China accurately assess peak emissions, plan reduction pathways, and effectively counter international green trade barriers like carbon tariffs.
How Carbon Accounting Will Transform Markets
The implementation of carbon accounting will directly impact carbon and electricity markets through two major shifts:
- National carbon market expansion: More industries and companies will be included in carbon trading systems, creating both regulatory pressures and new market opportunities.
- Electricity market differentiation: Price disparities between renewable and conventional energy will widen, enabling true value pricing for green power and driving corporate adoption.
Seizing "Dual Carbon" Investment Opportunities
Forward-thinking companies should focus on four strategic areas:
- Industry consolidation: High-emission, inefficient businesses will decline while low-carbon leaders prosper, creating merger and acquisition opportunities.
- Global champions: Internationally competitive Chinese firms with strong brands and technological advantages will better navigate carbon tariffs and green trade barriers.
- Clean tech innovation: Breakthroughs in energy efficiency, storage, and carbon capture (CCUS) technologies will attract venture capital and public market investments.
- Asset optimization: Energy-efficient retrofits of existing buildings and industrial facilities will enhance asset values, accelerating REITs market growth.
The "dual carbon" transition presents not just compliance challenges but transformative opportunities. Companies that proactively develop carbon management systems and capitalize on emerging opportunities will gain competitive advantage, while laggards risk gradual obsolescence in this new economic paradigm.