For cross-border e-commerce sellers, few words strike more fear than "tariffs." A single tariff order can shrink profit margins at best, or surrender market share at worst. Now, this Sword of Damocles hanging over global trade appears poised to fall again, with an unexpected connection to Greenland at the center of the dispute.
60% of Westbound Air Cargo Faces Disruption
Analysis from data provider Rotate reveals that countries targeted by the proposed US tariffs account for a staggering 60% of America's westbound air cargo volume. Between May and October, eight nations facing potential 10% tariffs shipped approximately 685,000 metric tons of air freight to the US, representing over half of the 1.15 million metric tons in total westbound volume during that period.
Germany stands as the most exposed, having exported 263,000 metric tons to become America's largest source of affected goods. The United Kingdom follows with 138,000 metric tons, while France ranks third at 125,000 metric tons. This isn't these nations' first encounter with US tariffs—the EU previously faced escalating duties starting at 10% and rising to 15% in 2025, with Britain maintaining a 10% rate.
Limited Previous Impact vs. New Uncertainties
Surprisingly, despite earlier tariffs, affected countries maintained growth in air cargo volumes to the US between April and October. This resilience stemmed from higher tariff barriers faced by non-European competitors, making EU products relatively more attractive. However, the new round presents different challenges—without equivalent tariff hikes on competing nations, European sellers may face intensified price competition.
Rotate further notes implementation complexities, as the targeted nations' participation in single market agreements creates uncertainty about applying tariffs to individual countries. The precision required to enforce these measures within intricate trade frameworks will test US policymakers.
The Greenland National Security Rationale
President Trump announced via social media that 10% tariffs would take effect February 1 on imports from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, Netherlands, and Finland. He suggested rates could climb to 25% until agreements are reached. The stated justification? Greenland's importance to US national security, with the seven nations having deployed small troop contingents to support Denmark on the Arctic island.
Logistics Sector Calls for Restraint
Reacting to the tariff threat, the UK Logistics Association urged "measured statesmanship" in handling Greenland-related disputes to protect global supply chains from inflationary pressures. The trade body emphasized that with post-pandemic economic recovery still fragile, transatlantic leaders should avoid actions that might destabilize global markets and distribution networks.
For cross-border e-commerce operators, these potential tariffs represent a critical stress test. Navigating possible cost increases, recalibrating supply chains, and maintaining competitive positioning will demand strategic agility. In an era of growing trade uncertainty, preparedness may prove the ultimate differentiator.