As the echoes of New Year celebrations fade, the global container shipping market is already grappling with an early chill. Deteriorating fundamentals at the start of the year have forced major carriers to implement stricter capacity management strategies. The convergence of three critical pressures—demand imbalance, falling freight rates, and operational uncertainty—has led to a dramatic increase in "blank sailings" (cancelled voyages), particularly on major east-west trade routes. This development not only impacts carrier profitability but also sends ripples through global trade networks.
Optimistic Forecasts Fall Short
Drewry's latest analysis reveals that earlier market optimism about a seasonal rebound during Lunar New Year has failed to materialize. Persistently weak demand is compelling carriers to further tighten capacity on key east-west routes. The most visible manifestation of this market cooling is the continuous decline in freight rates. Drewry's World Container Index (WCI) shows a 10% weekly drop , with rates standing at $2,212 per FEU as of January 22—a clear confirmation of weakening conditions on major trade lanes.
The downward pressure on rates has spread across all major routes: Trans-Pacific rates fell 11% , Asia-Europe/Mediterranean routes declined 9%, and even the typically resilient Trans-Atlantic market saw a 4% decrease. Facing these challenges, carriers are implementing unprecedented capacity cuts to stem further rate erosion.
Blank Sailings Reach Alarming Levels
Data reveals that among 703 scheduled sailings between weeks 5-9 (January 26 to March 1), a staggering 109 voyages (16%) have been cancelled . Drewry's analysis shows these cancellations are concentrated on Eastbound Trans-Pacific routes (58%), followed by Asia-Europe/Mediterranean (32%) and Westbound Trans-Atlantic (10%). While 86% of services continue operating normally, this offers only modest consolation to the market.
The outlook for February appears even more concerning. Drewry reports 107 planned February cancellations —a 38% increase from the previous week. This accelerated pace of capacity adjustment underscores carriers' urgent response to sustained demand weakness, signaling unprecedented challenges for global shipping.
Multiple Factors Compound Market Complexity
Beyond capacity management, several factors contribute to market volatility: persistently declining Asia-origin rates, mounting pressure on Trans-Atlantic routes, and unpredictable decisions regarding Red Sea route utilization. Drewry notes these intersecting challenges make supply-demand balance increasingly difficult for both carriers and shippers.
In this environment, Drewry advises shippers to prioritize "Suez route clarity, service reliability, and flexible planning" over short-term cost savings. Blank sailings have become carriers' primary tool for managing overcapacity and maintaining revenue, but shippers face significant challenges in navigating this uncertainty.
Dry Bulk Market Shows Regional Variations
Meanwhile, the dry bulk sector presents contrasting dynamics. For the South America West Coast (Callao)-Far East route (Chart A), 2025 week 37 fixtures show: Handysize vessels at $14,500/day (100% of BHSI benchmark), up $1,500 from week 36; Supramax at $21,000/day (111% of BSI), rising $1,000; Ultramax fixed at $23,000/day (113% benchmark), gaining $2,000 weekly—demonstrating sustained activity on certain routes.
On the South America West Coast (Callao)-North Europe route (Chart B), Handysize reached $14,000/day (97% of BHS benchmark), up $1,500, while Supramax climbed to $21,000/day (111% of BSI), increasing $1,000—further evidence of regional market differentiation.
For Chilean copper/zinc/lead concentrate shipments to the Far East (Chart C), spot rates estimate at $50/ton (mid-range), while Peruvian shipments stand at $40/ton (mid-low). Chilean 22,000-ton shipments estimate at $50/ton (low-mid), Peruvian at $40/ton (low). Including front-haul, Chilean 22,000-ton shipments to Far East ports estimate at $50/ton (mid-range), with Peruvian one-way at $40/ton (mid-low)—providing shippers valuable cost references.
As global shipping navigates these complex conditions, both carriers and shippers must maintain vigilance and adapt strategies to remain competitive in this challenging environment.