The streets of Bangkok, once bustling with tourists, now appear noticeably quieter. This isn't merely seasonal variation but rather a visible symptom of Thailand's broader economic challenges. A recent report from Kasikorn Research Center has sounded alarms about mounting debt pressures in four key industries, with the retail sector's troubles now threatening to destabilize e-commerce supply chains.
Mounting Debt Pressures Across Key Sectors
Data reveals that manufacturing, hospitality, retail, and real estate sectors are bearing significant debt repayment burdens. In the first quarter of 2025, "special mention loans" (30-90 days overdue) accounted for 2.23% of total outstanding credit in these industries, while non-performing loans (over 90 days overdue) reached 3.95%. More concerning is the 6.9% surge in distressed businesses since late 2024, dramatically outpacing the 1.2% growth among healthy enterprises.
Senior researcher Grid Kaewhiran noted that several large retail and hospitality firms with loans exceeding 500 million baht have begun missing payments. The decline in foreign tourists and broader economic weakness are primary contributors to this trend. As the critical link between production and consumption, retail sector liquidity strains directly threaten e-commerce supply chain stability.
E-Commerce Supply Chains at Risk
The report specifically warns e-commerce operators to monitor supply chain vulnerabilities closely. Medium-sized retailers with monthly revenues between 1-5 million baht face unprecedented financial pressures, potentially leading to inventory shortages, price volatility, and supplier bankruptcies. For e-commerce businesses dependent on stable supply chains, these developments represent a looming crisis.
Kanjana Chockpisansin, research director at Kasikorn Research Center, recommends differentiated government intervention. For creditworthy businesses anticipating temporary difficulties, adjusted repayment terms could provide relief. Regarding non-performing loans, streamlined asset transfer processes could contain risk contagion.
Opportunities for Stabilization Remain
Approximately 95% of businesses currently maintain normal repayment schedules. Experts suggest that timely measures including asset warehousing programs and legal process optimization could prevent further deterioration, buying time for economic recovery.
For Thailand's e-commerce sector, building supply chain resilience through diversified supplier networks and enhanced cash flow management has become imperative. Industry analysts emphasize that robust liquidity management will separate survivors from casualties in the current climate. Companies maintaining strong cash positions may ultimately capitalize on emerging opportunities when conditions improve.
Thailand's retail debt crisis serves as a global reminder: in today's volatile economic environment, proactive risk management distinguishes thriving enterprises from vulnerable ones.