While Thailand's e-commerce exporters have been treading carefully under 19% tariffs, the specter of potential 40% punitive duties now hangs like the sword of Damocles over the industry. Recent warnings from Thailand's National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) reveal the devastating impact that new US tariff policies could have on Thai exports, with e-commerce businesses particularly vulnerable to this impending crisis.
Tariff Surge Threatens Export Collapse
The NESDB assessment indicates that US plans to raise import tariffs to 25% on specific goods will hit Thailand's automotive and parts industry hardest. A dramatic decline in US export orders is projected for the second half of 2025, with key export categories including electrical appliances, electronic equipment, computers, and auto components facing severe challenges. This tariff escalation threatens to erode Thai e-commerce competitiveness in the US market, potentially ceding ground to competitors from other regions.
Supply Chain Risks Compound Margin Pressures
Simultaneously rising supply chain risks present additional complications. Many Thai e-commerce businesses rely on Chinese imports for raw materials like chemicals, rubber, and plastics. Any escalation in US-China trade tensions would drive up these input costs, further squeezing already narrow profit margins. Small and medium-sized cross-border e-commerce operations face particularly acute pressures, with some potentially forced out of business.
Compliance Challenges for Informal Exporters
More alarmingly, transshipped goods and imitation products could face punitive tariffs as high as 40%, effectively ending viability for sellers relying on informal customs clearance methods. This forces an urgent compliance transition that will increase operational costs and regulatory risks - particularly burdensome for smaller sellers lacking capital and experience in formal trade channels.
Strategic Responses: Diversification and Compliance
The NESDB has outlined four strategic recommendations for Thai e-commerce businesses facing these challenges:
Market Diversification: Actively develop emerging markets in Southeast Asia and the Middle East to reduce US market dependence.
Strict Origin Compliance: Prepare complete documentation including Certificates of Origin to meet US requirements.
Quality Enhancement: Improve product quality to avoid additional sanctions related to substandard goods.
Currency Risk Management: Implement robust measures to mitigate exchange rate volatility impacts.
Industry analysts suggest these tariff changes may trigger market consolidation, with compliant businesses offering quality products best positioned to thrive. Proactive strategic planning will be crucial for identifying new opportunities amidst these challenges.
Projected Export Decline of 15-20%
Full implementation of new US tariffs in late 2025 could reduce Thailand's US exports by 15-20%. For Thailand's e-commerce sector, which exports over $30 billion annually, this represents a critical challenge requiring immediate and strategic responses to ensure survival in an increasingly uncertain global trade environment.