As pandemic restrictions ease globally, questions arise about the staying power of contactless commerce solutions that emerged as essential during the health crisis. To assess their long-term viability, we must first examine what constitutes "contactless commerce" and its various applications.
The Rise and Fall of Unmanned Retail
The concept of unmanned retail isn't new. Following Amazon Go's 2016 debut, China witnessed a surge in similar ventures, with companies like BingoBox, Xianbianli, and Guoxiaomei attracting significant investment. The sector saw over 50 startups and $300 million in funding within two years, backed by major investors including Sequoia China, IDG Capital, and Alibaba.
However, the bubble burst quickly. By 2018, mergers, layoffs, and market exits became commonplace as fundamental flaws emerged. Most surviving players, like convenience chain Bianlifeng, adopted hybrid models where only checkout remains automated while maintaining staff presence—a more sustainable approach than pure unmanned concepts.
Industry Consolidation: Smart Lockers Dominate
Unlike the fragmented unmanned retail sector, smart locker systems for parcels and food deliveries show higher market concentration. Major players like China Post's Zhongyou Suidiyi, SF Express's Fengchao, and Fuyou's Shoujianbao dominate parcel lockers, each backed by logistics or financial giants.
This consolidation stems from the sector's economics. Smart lockers face high upfront costs and limited revenue streams—primarily advertising, delivery fees, and overdue charges. With thin margins, integration with established logistics networks proves essential for viability.
Food delivery platforms similarly lead in contactless meal locker deployment. Meituan installed 1,000 units nationwide during the pandemic, while Ele.me planned 3,000 across China. The model works best when serving restaurant chains like Burger King, reducing errors in busy pickup scenarios.
Robotic Delivery: Promise Versus Reality
Delivery robots gained temporary relevance during pandemic precautions, with companies like Pudu, Qinglang, and Cheetah Mobile deploying units in hospitals and restaurants. While offering 2-3 times human efficiency at lower monthly costs ($300/unit), their limited functionality restricts meaningful labor replacement.
Economic Fundamentals Determine Survival
Ultimately, contactless solutions must prove their value beyond pandemic conditions. These technologies primarily address labor efficiency—a pressing concern as China's workforce costs rise. However, the math remains challenging:
Unmanned retail struggles with high product loss rates, while smart lockers require $10,000+ per unit investments. Even deep-pocketed companies must weigh automation savings against hardware and maintenance costs. Some, like Fengchao, now implement usage fees to improve economics.
Policy and Perception Shifts
Shanghai's 2020 policy explicitly supports contactless delivery development, signaling potential government backing. Consumer acceptance also grew—80% chose contactless options during peak pandemic caution according to Meituan data.
Certain specialized applications, like medical robots performing basic diagnostics, may retain relevance post-crisis. However, for most routine operations, traditional labor-intensive methods remain economically preferable to full automation—for now.
The pandemic served as both stress test and accelerator for contactless technologies. While some solutions will fade, others may evolve into permanent fixtures of our commercial landscape, shaped by enduring economic pressures rather than temporary health concerns.