As Thanksgiving festivities fade, the U.S. rail transportation industry reveals distinct holiday impacts. The latest data from the Association of American Railroads (AAR) shows mixed results for the week ending November 25, with carload traffic declining while intermodal shipments demonstrated resilience.
Carload Traffic: Holiday-Induced Decline
U.S. railroads moved 195,948 carloads during the reported week, marking a 2.5% year-over-year decrease. This figure represents a notable drop from previous weeks (237,416 carloads for November 18 and 233,745 for November 11), reflecting typical holiday-related slowdowns in commercial activity.
However, four of ten commodity categories tracked by AAR showed annual growth:
- Petroleum products: Increased by 1,034 carloads to 8,642 total, potentially tied to elevated holiday travel fuel demand
- Metals and ores: Grew by 880 carloads to 18,457, suggesting manufacturing or infrastructure activity
- Chemicals: Rose by 505 carloads to 27,582, possibly indicating industrial or agricultural demand
Declining categories included:
- Miscellaneous carloads: Dropped 3,804 to 6,256
- Nonmetallic minerals: Fell 1,701 to 21,525
- Grain: Decreased 1,328 to 17,961
Intermodal: A Bright Spot Amid Declines
Intermodal containers and trailers bucked the downward trend with 219,384 units moved, representing a 7.1% annual increase. While still below pre-holiday volumes (264,000 for November 18), the growth highlights intermodal's competitive advantages in cost-efficiency and flexibility.
This performance may reflect improving port conditions and shippers' increasing preference for rail-to-truck solutions in inland distribution networks.
Year-to-Date Performance
Cumulative 2023 data through week 47 shows:
- Carloads: 10,587,945 (up 0.2%)
- Intermodal units: 11,412,394 (down 6.3%)
The marginal carload growth suggests economic resilience amid slowing momentum, while intermodal declines likely reflect global trade adjustments and supply chain realignments.
Future Outlook
The rail sector faces both challenges and opportunities:
- Economic uncertainty and fuel price volatility may pressure volumes
- Infrastructure investments and digital transformation could enhance competitiveness
- Rail's environmental advantages position it favorably in climate-conscious markets
Industry adaptation through operational improvements and technological adoption will be critical for maintaining relevance in evolving transportation ecosystems.