How many supply chain decision-makers are losing sleep over the unpredictable freight market? The latest U.S. rail freight data reveals increasingly visible market fragmentation. According to the Association of American Railroads (AAR), the week ending May 13 presented a complex picture: railcar loadings grew while intermodal traffic declined sharply. This divergence signals accelerating structural adjustments within the U.S. economy and creates strategic urgency for affected businesses.
Mixed Signals in Overall Freight Volume
Railcar loadings reached 225,571 units during the observed week, marking a 0.9% year-over-year increase. While positive, this growth rate slowed compared to the previous two weeks (231,718 units on May 6 and 236,318 units on April 29). Meanwhile, intermodal containers and trailers plummeted 11.5% year-over-year to 240,810 units. Though slightly higher than the May 6 figure (240,121 units), it remained below April 29's 245,642 units. This contrast between modest railcar growth and steep intermodal decline highlights structural tensions in U.S. freight transportation.
Commodity-Specific Performance
Among the 10 commodity categories AAR tracks, five showed annual growth. Automotive shipments surged to 16,035 carloads (up 2,968 units), reflecting supply chain recovery in the auto industry. Petroleum products grew by 1,452 carloads to 9,491 units, potentially influenced by seasonal energy demand and geopolitical factors. Nonmetallic minerals (used in construction) increased by 1,040 carloads to 33,846 units, demonstrating infrastructure sector resilience.
Conversely, grain shipments fell by 2,040 carloads to 18,818 units, likely impacted by weather conditions, export fluctuations, or competition. Miscellaneous carloads dropped 1,216 units to 7,526, indicating broader economic softening. Agricultural products (excluding grain) and food declined by 462 carloads to 15,540 units, possibly tied to shifting consumer spending patterns.
Intermodal Challenges: Weak Demand Meets Systemic Issues
The intermodal sector's struggles represent the most pressing concern. Traditionally an economic bellwether, its decline suggests weakening consumer demand and inventory management adjustments. Structural obstacles—including port congestion, truck driver shortages, and rail infrastructure bottlenecks—further undermine intermodal efficiency. Despite weekly fluctuations, the persistent downward trajectory demands attention.
Cumulative Data Reveals Annual Trends
Year-to-date figures through 19 weeks show U.S. railcar volumes at 4,260,143 units (up 0.6% annually), while intermodal traffic crashed 10.9% to 4,413,091 units. Combined rail/intermodal volume fell 5.6% to 8,673,234 units. These numbers confirm that intermodal's deterioration outweighs railcars' marginal gains, potentially foreshadowing broader market decline if trends persist.
North American Regional Variations
Expanding to North America (12 railroads across U.S., Canada, Mexico), the week ending May 6 saw 330,351 railcars (down 0.1% annually) and 320,875 intermodal units (down 12.6%). Total North American freight volume declined 6.7% year-over-year to 651,226 units. Through 18 weeks, regional volume reached 11,601,657 units (down 4.0%), confirming intermodal weakness as a continental phenomenon with localized variations based on economic structures and infrastructure conditions.
Multiple Factors Drive Market Fragmentation
Several interconnected forces shape this divergence: macroeconomic pressures (inflation, rising interest rates, recession risks) dampen freight demand; persistent supply chain disruptions and labor shortages exacerbate operational challenges; energy price volatility and geopolitical tensions alter trade flows. Each factor interacts uniquely with rail and intermodal segments, creating the observed imbalance.
Strategic Recommendations for Businesses
Companies should consider these adaptive measures: monitor macroeconomic indicators to adjust inventory/production plans; strengthen collaboration with rail operators, ports, and trucking firms; evaluate intermodal alternatives like road/air/barge transport; invest in automation, AI, and data analytics for efficiency gains; develop contingency plans for disruptions (natural disasters, labor disputes, geopolitical crises).
The U.S. rail freight market faces simultaneous challenges and opportunities. While certain sectors demonstrate resilience through railcar growth, intermodal's decline signals deeper structural shifts. Businesses maintaining vigilant, adaptable strategies will be best positioned to navigate this evolving landscape.