As global supply chains continue their uneven recovery, rail freight has emerged as a critical barometer of economic health. The latest data from the Association of American Railroads (AAR) paints a complex picture: during the week ending March 19, U.S. rail freight markets displayed divergent trends, with modest gains in carload volumes offset by persistent declines in intermodal traffic.
Carload Traffic: Coal and Chemicals Surge While Grains and Petroleum Struggle
U.S. railroads originated 232,770 carloads during the surveyed week, marking a 1.1% increase compared to the same period last year. While this growth appears modest, it breaks a weeks-long pattern of stagnation, offering cautious optimism. The figure represents a slight fluctuation from recent weeks—higher than the 232,338 carloads recorded in the week ending March 12, but below the 238,870 carloads reported for the week ending March 5.
The growth was primarily driven by strong demand for coal, chemicals, and nonmetallic minerals. Coal shipments surged by 4,182 carloads to 63,929, underscoring the energy sector's continued reliance on the fossil fuel despite renewable energy initiatives. Chemical shipments increased by 2,656 carloads to 34,178, reflecting sustained manufacturing activity. Nonmetallic minerals, often used in construction, saw a 1,984-carload increase to 31,151, potentially signaling infrastructure project momentum.
However, several commodity groups faced headwinds. Grain shipments plummeted by 4,014 carloads to 23,317, likely impacted by shifting export demand, weather disruptions, or supply chain constraints. Petroleum and petroleum products declined by 2,457 carloads to 9,181, possibly reflecting price volatility or energy policy shifts. Automotive shipments decreased by 958 carloads to 13,953, suggesting ongoing challenges from semiconductor shortages or softened consumer demand.
Intermodal Decline Highlights Supply Chain Bottlenecks
In stark contrast to the carload gains, intermodal traffic continued its downward trajectory. U.S. railroads handled 266,592 containers and trailers during the week—a 5.7% year-over-year decline. This underperformance extends a broader 2022 trend, with weekly volumes remaining below 2021 levels despite minor fluctuations from prior weeks (263,746 units for March 12 and 266,307 for March 5).
The persistent intermodal slump likely reflects systemic supply chain challenges, including port congestion, truck driver shortages, and warehouse capacity constraints—all of which disrupt the seamless transfer of goods between rail and other transportation modes.
Year-to-Date Performance: A Tale of Two Markets
Cumulative data through March 19 reveals diverging fortunes across rail segments. Total U.S. carloads for 2022 reached 2,521,622, representing a 3% year-over-year increase—though growth rates show signs of deceleration from early-year highs. Meanwhile, intermodal volumes fell sharply to 2,828,405 units, down 7.1% from 2021 levels. This imbalance suggests that while traditional rail freight shows resilience, intermodal struggles may outweigh these gains in the broader transportation equation.
North American Rail Networks Face Regional Headwinds
The challenges extend beyond U.S. borders. For the week ending March 19, combined data from 12 major North American railroads (including U.S., Canadian, and Mexican operators) showed 328,840 carloads (down 0.7% year-over-year) and 348,166 intermodal units (down 6%). Total North American rail traffic declined 3.5% compared to 2021. Year-to-date figures through March 19 show total North American rail traffic at 7,249,341 carloads and intermodal units—a 4% overall decline, demonstrating how regional economic pressures create continent-wide ripple effects.
Navigating an Uncertain Future
Looking ahead, North American rail operators face a complex landscape. Global economic headwinds, trade policy shifts, and geopolitical instability may suppress freight demand, while domestic challenges like labor shortages and aging infrastructure require urgent attention. Yet opportunities exist—particularly in serving e-commerce growth, meeting sustainability goals through rail's carbon efficiency, and optimizing long-haul freight networks.
To capitalize on these prospects, railroads must prioritize operational innovation, strengthen multimodal coordination, and adapt to evolving supply chain architectures. Simultaneously, policymakers could support these efforts through targeted infrastructure investments and regulatory frameworks that encourage rail competitiveness.
The current divergence between carload and intermodal performance underscores broader economic transitions and supply chain realignments. How railroads navigate this inflection point will determine their role in tomorrow's transportation ecosystem.