The latest weekly rail freight data from the Association of American Railroads (AAR) paints a complex picture of the U.S. economy, with carload freight showing modest gains while intermodal shipments continue to decline. The report covering the week ending March 19 reveals these diverging trends that may signal shifting economic currents.
Carload Freight: Steady Growth With Sector-Specific Variations
U.S. railroads originated 232,770 carloads during the reported week, marking a 1.1% increase compared to the same period last year. This continues a pattern of gradual improvement, though figures remain below early March levels of 238,870 carloads recorded in the week ending March 5.
The growth was driven primarily by three commodity groups: coal shipments increased by 4,182 carloads to 63,929; chemicals rose by 2,656 carloads to 34,178; and nonmetallic minerals (used in construction) grew by 1,984 carloads to 31,151. These gains suggest resilience in energy demand, manufacturing activity, and infrastructure projects.
However, several categories showed declines: grain shipments dropped by 4,014 carloads to 23,317; petroleum products decreased by 2,457 carloads to 9,181; and motor vehicles & parts fell by 958 carloads to 13,953. These reductions likely reflect ongoing challenges in agricultural exports, energy market transitions, and persistent automotive supply chain disruptions.
Intermodal Traffic: Persistent Challenges in Container Shipping
In contrast to carload gains, U.S. intermodal volume (containers and trailers transported by rail) declined 5.7% year-over-year to 266,592 units for the week. While slightly higher than the previous two weeks' figures, the overall downward trend continues to concern transportation analysts.
Industry experts attribute intermodal weaknesses to multiple factors: ongoing port congestion disrupting supply chains, competitive pressure from trucking companies offering more flexible solutions, and inventory management changes among retailers. The data suggests railroads may be losing market share in time-sensitive freight movements.
Year-to-Date Performance: A Tale of Two Markets
Cumulative data for 2022 through March 19 reveals this divergence more clearly: total U.S. carloads reached 2,521,622 (up 3%), while intermodal units fell to 2,828,405 (down 7.1%). The net effect shows a transportation sector experiencing structural shifts as supply chains adapt to post-pandemic realities.
North American rail traffic overall declined 3.5% year-over-year for the week, with 12 reporting U.S., Canadian, and Mexican railroads moving 677,006 combined carloads and intermodal units. The continental perspective shows similar patterns across borders, though regional variations exist based on domestic economic conditions.
Future Outlook: Navigating Economic Crosscurrents
The rail industry faces both challenges and opportunities in coming months. While strong demand for commodities like coal and construction materials supports carload growth, intermodal struggles may persist until port operations normalize and service reliability improves.
Potential headwinds include geopolitical uncertainty affecting global trade, inflationary pressures on operating costs, and labor market constraints. Conversely, infrastructure investment programs and technological innovations in rail operations could create new efficiencies.
Railroad operators will need to balance these competing forces through strategic investments in network capacity, equipment modernization, and service enhancements to maintain their critical role in the national supply chain.