The latest data from the Association of American Railroads (AAR) reveals subtle shifts in the US rail freight market, with both carload and intermodal traffic showing year-over-year declines during the week ending June 11.
Overall Performance: Emerging Downtrend
According to AAR statistics, US railroads moved 234,942 carloads during the measured week, marking a 3.6% decrease compared to the same period last year. While this represents an improvement from the previous two weeks' volumes of 225,274 and 233,633 carloads respectively, the annual decline remains noteworthy.
Intermodal units followed a similar pattern, with 275,353 containers and trailers transported—a 4.4% year-over-year drop . This figure sits between the prior week's 250,329 units and the 280,644 units recorded in late May.
Sector Analysis: Mixed Performance Across Commodities
A closer examination of the 10 major commodity categories tracked by AAR shows significant divergence:
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Growth Sectors:
- Motor vehicles & parts : Increased by 1,571 carloads to 13,793, signaling gradual automotive supply chain recovery
- Agricultural products (excluding grain) & food : Rose by 1,203 carloads to 16,340, reflecting stable consumer demand
- Nonmetallic minerals : Grew by 618 carloads to 33,028, potentially linked to infrastructure projects
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Declining Sectors:
- Grain : Fell by 2,912 carloads to 21,429, affected by weather and trade factors
- Coal : Dropped by 2,657 carloads to 66,607, continuing its long-term structural decline
- Miscellaneous freight : Decreased by 1,466 carloads to 9,769
Cumulative Data: Concerning Annual Trends
Year-to-date figures through 23 weeks show US rail carload traffic essentially flat at 5,296,578 carloads , while intermodal volumes declined 6.4% to 6,081,199 units . The steeper intermodal contraction suggests persistent challenges including port congestion and truck driver shortages.
Key Market Pressures
Industry analysts attribute the softening demand to multiple converging factors:
- Macroeconomic slowdown and inflationary pressures
- Ongoing supply chain disruptions
- Energy transition away from coal
- Geopolitical uncertainties from the Russia-Ukraine conflict
- Potential labor disruptions in rail operations
Future Outlook
The rail sector faces both challenges and opportunities in coming months. Infrastructure spending and e-commerce growth may provide demand support, while operators must address efficiency improvements, infrastructure upgrades, service diversification, and sustainability initiatives to remain competitive.