The latest data from the Association of American Railroads (AAR) reveals a complex picture of the nation's rail freight sector, with overall declines masking surprising growth in specific industries.
Key Findings From May's Rail Data
May's rail freight statistics showed concerning declines across major metrics:
- Rail carloads: 928,742 total units, marking a 3.7% decrease (35,821 fewer carloads) compared to May 2021
- Intermodal units (containers/trailers): 1,102,558 units, representing a 4.3% decline (49,258 fewer units) year-over-year
Sectors Bucking the Trend
Among the 20 commodity categories tracked by AAR, seven showed positive growth, with three sectors demonstrating particularly strong performance:
- Crushed stone, sand & gravel: 4,659 additional carloads (+5.8%) suggesting potential infrastructure acceleration
- Motor vehicles & parts: 4,534 more carloads (+9%) indicating automotive sector recovery
- Food products: 1,652 additional carloads (+7.1%) reflecting stable consumer demand
Struggling Industries
Several sectors experienced significant declines:
- Grain: 13,738 fewer carloads (-13.5%) potentially due to weather and trade factors
- Primary metal products: 5,878 fewer carloads (-15.3%) signaling manufacturing weakness
- Petroleum products: 5,857 fewer carloads (-13.5%) possibly tied to energy market volatility
Underlying Economic Indicators
When excluding volatile coal and grain shipments, the adjusted data shows:
- Excluding coal: 30,281 fewer carloads (-4.3%)
- Excluding coal and grain: 16,453 fewer carloads (-2.8%)
Industry Perspective
AAR Senior Vice President John T. Gray described the data as reflecting "a mixed economic picture," noting automotive sector recovery and strong construction material shipments, while expressing concern about chemical shipments and disappointing grain volumes.
Year-to-Date Performance
The January-May 2022 cumulative data shows modest gains in rail carloads (0.2% increase, 8,490 more units) despite a 6.6% decline in intermodal units (389,799 fewer).
Looking Ahead
The rail freight sector's trajectory appears dependent on multiple factors including macroeconomic conditions, supply chain bottlenecks, geopolitical risks, and industry modernization efforts. The data suggests that while certain sectors face challenges, others demonstrate resilience in the current economic environment.