In Q1 2025, the freight market appears stable on the surface but is hiding underlying uncertainties, with weak demand and limited supply. Although short-term demand has risen, the ongoing decline reflects shippers' lack of confidence in the market. The overall industry is in a state of adjustment but is facing greater tension, making flexible operational models increasingly important.
The global container shortage is severe, leading to a significant increase in demand for owned containers among shippers, while the number of freight forwarders able to provide this service remains limited. The report analyzes that using owned containers can effectively reduce logistics costs and minimize detention fees, urging freight forwarders to enhance the utilization of Shipper Owned Containers (SOC) to address market challenges.
At the beginning of 2025, the global tanker market faces uncertainty, with marked divergence in the performance of crude and product oil tanker stocks. Product oil tankers are pressured by an increase in new vessel deliveries and a slowdown in demand growth, while crude oil tankers show a more positive outlook due to recovering demand and turbulence in the international market.
In October 2023, China's warehousing index reached 52.8%, marking a three-month high and reflecting the healthy growth of the industry. Inventory levels, business profits, and the number of employees have all increased, indicating a recovery in market demand. With rising demand and the approach of the Double Eleven shopping festival, the future outlook for warehousing services is generally optimistic.
US container freight volume increased by 13.4% in September, marking the 13th consecutive month of growth, driven by robust consumer demand. The booming consumer goods market highlights the strength of the US economy. However, this surge in demand also warrants careful monitoring of potential supply chain risks and bottlenecks to ensure continued smooth operations and prevent disruptions in the flow of goods.
The surge in China-US ocean freight rates stems from pandemic-induced supply-demand imbalances, leading to reduced shipping capacity, port congestion, and surging demand. This intensifies cost pressures on exporters, drives up consumer prices, and disrupts supply chains. Mitigation strategies include increasing shipping capacity, optimizing port operations, strengthening international cooperation, and promoting digital transformation to stabilize the global trade chain.
With the surge in demand for air cargo, the market is exhibiting unprecedented vitality. The rise of cross-border e-commerce and geopolitical conflicts have driven up air freight demand, yet capacity shortages pose significant challenges for the industry. Despite ongoing uncertainties, major airlines must adapt their strategies flexibly to respond to the changing market landscape, ensuring they remain competitive in the increasingly complex freight sector.
The trucking market is facing slowing demand and excess capacity. Companies should prioritize logistics strategies, fostering win-win collaborations between shippers and carriers. A cautiously optimistic approach to the 2024 peak season is advised, along with embracing technological innovation. Navigating the current freight recession requires strategic partnerships and a focus on efficiency to mitigate the impact of reduced demand and oversupply in the market.
The bulk shipping market outlook is optimistic, with port congestion and domestic demand aiding in the absorption of capacity. New ship deliveries must be managed to stabilize rental rates.
S&P Global reports a 3.4% year-over-year decline in US imports for October, marking the third consecutive month of contraction, signaling weak import demand. High inflation, economic downturn risks, and Federal Reserve rate hikes are cited as key factors. The report anticipates continued downward pressure on US import volumes in the coming months, posing challenges for economic recovery. The sustained decline reflects weakening domestic demand and global economic headwinds.
