The annual Black Friday shopping frenzy arrived as scheduled, but for many eagerly awaiting Amazon sellers, this year's event proved unexpectedly quiet. Sellers who had hoped the traditional holiday shopping season would reverse their fortunes found reality falling far short of expectations. While some celebrated order surges that doubled or tripled their usual volume, far more found themselves endlessly refreshing their dashboards, waiting in vain for a sales miracle.
"This Black Friday is eerily silent—I keep hitting refresh but no orders appear," one seller lamented. Others reported: "Increased my budget expecting a sales boom, only to see my ACOS explode," "Spent over $1,000 on a 7-day lightning deal that made zero impact," and "My sales have hit historic lows—how dare Amazon charge triple storage fees now?" Social media platforms overflowed with similar frustrations, revealing widespread disappointment with Black Friday's performance.
Economic Headwinds Dampen Holiday Spending
As pandemic effects recede, this year's holiday shopping season faces a new challenge: soaring inflation. Compared to the rapid sales growth of 2020 and 2021, this year's expansion is projected to slow significantly. Adobe Analytics forecasts just 2.5% year-over-year growth in holiday sales, dramatically below the previous years' 8.6% and 32% increases. With essential goods prices rising, consumers have become more deliberate in their holiday purchases, carefully comparing options and tightening budgets.
Beyond sluggish sales, retailers confront mounting inventory gluts. To clear excess stock, many have intensified promotions—a strategy that inevitably erodes profit margins. Even when sales volumes improve, profitability often fails to follow.
Warehouse Constraints Compound Seller Frustrations
Adding to sellers' anxieties, Amazon's storage capacity limitations have severely impacted even those with strong seasonal demand. One toy company CEO recently disclosed paying Amazon $4 million in fees over twelve months while still receiving inadequate storage space. His current allocation of 126,000 units and maximum restock quantity of 4,270 units fall far short of his projected 243,000-unit Christmas demand. Despite offering to pay premium storage fees, his requests for additional capacity remain unanswered.
Over the past month, numerous sellers report sudden reductions in their Amazon storage limits, disrupting inventory replenishment plans. While third-party warehouses offer temporary solutions, most sellers prefer Amazon's Fulfillment by Amazon (FBA) service due to its search ranking advantages. Compounding the problem, Amazon recently announced 2023 FBA fee increases—the latest in a series that has raised costs over 30% since 2020.
An Amazon vice president defended the changes, stating some sellers occupy disproportionate warehouse space, limiting others' ability to stock products. This explanation places blame on sellers with inventory surpluses—a characterization many dispute as unfairly broad.
Glimmers of Hope Remain
While many sellers await elusive order surges, some speculate the sales peak may arrive later, as Thanksgiving gatherings temporarily divert American shoppers. The holiday shopping season remains young, leaving room for improvement.
Not all news is bleak. This year's holiday period marks a return to normalcy, with store shelves fully stocked and retailers offering aggressive discounts. Supply chain pressures continue easing, accelerating product flows that may help reduce inflationary pressures. High-income consumers continue spending vigorously—a trend benefiting retailers like Walmart and Bloomingdale's.
Strategic Adjustments for Challenging Times
Facing this polarized Black Friday, Amazon sellers must analyze market conditions with clear eyes. Success requires optimizing product offerings to meet evolving consumer demands while negotiating with Amazon for reasonable storage allocations. Balancing FBA with third-party logistics and carefully managing rising operational costs will separate winners from also-rans in this competitive season.
Amazon itself faces pressure to reconsider storage policies and fee structures that increasingly constrain seller success. Only through fair partnership can the platform and its merchants navigate current challenges toward mutual growth. As global economic recovery continues, opportunities remain for sellers who adapt strategically to this transformed retail landscape.