The latest shifts in U.S. container import data may reveal part of the answer to whether trade conflicts are fundamentally altering global supply chain geography. Descartes' newly released global shipping report shows that after a significant decline in May, U.S. container imports stabilized and rebounded in June, though year-over-year figures remain negative. What trade policy dynamics and supply chain adjustments lie beneath these complex numbers?
Overall Imports: Short-Term Stabilization, Long-Term Pressure
According to Descartes' 47th Global Shipping Report (dating back to August 2021), U.S. container imports reached 2,217,675 TEUs in June, marking a 1.8% month-over-month increase but a 3.5% year-over-year decline. This suggests stabilization following a 9.7% monthly drop and 7.2% annual decrease between April and May. However, considering May's data reflected both prior import growth and stockpiling ahead of new tariffs, June's annual decline still indicates persistent import pressures.
First-half imports showed 3.8% annual growth, though momentum has slowed compared to earlier this year. The report notes June's monthly increase might signal import stabilization or suggest U.S. importers are adapting to ongoing trade volatility. Key factors influencing behavior include the extended "Section 301 tariff" moratorium (originally expiring July 9, now extended to August 1), the 90-day U.S.-China trade truce (set to expire August 10), and potential elimination of "de minimis" exemptions for low-value imports—all pushing companies to enhance supply chain resilience.
"While U.S. container imports saw a modest June rebound, the impact of shifting U.S.-China policies has become evident for two consecutive months," said Descartes' Industry Strategy Director Jackson Wood. "With two critical trade deadlines approaching, businesses face mounting pressure to strengthen supply chain agility in this rapidly evolving environment."
China's Imports: Persistent Decline, Record-Low Share
Imports from China totaled 639,300 TEUs in June—a marginal 0.4% monthly increase but a striking 28.3% annual drop. This continues May's downward trend, reflecting how tariff hikes and potential de minimis changes are dampening Chinese exports. April had seen importers front-load orders ahead of tariff implementations.
China's share of U.S. imports has fallen to a four-year low of 28.8%, well below February 2022's 41.5% peak. This accelerated diversification underscores how Southeast Asia and other regions are becoming vital alternative sourcing hubs as companies reduce single-market dependence.
Southeast Asia's Ascent: Diversification Accelerates
The report highlights robust monthly export growth from several Southeast Asian nations to the U.S.: Vietnam (+7.7%), Indonesia (+17.3%), Thailand (+8.6%), and Italy (+9.0%). These figures confirm the rapid implementation of supply chain diversification strategies.
Companies are actively establishing or expanding production bases outside China to mitigate tariff risks, optimize costs, and improve supply chain flexibility. Southeast Asia's relatively lower labor costs, improving infrastructure, and maturing industrial ecosystems position it as a primary beneficiary of this manufacturing shift.
Port Performance: West Coast Rebounds, East Coast Slows
Analysis of major U.S. ports shows June container volumes rose 3.1% monthly across the top 10 gateways, totaling 55,733 TEUs. Los Angeles led with a 29.1% surge (103,884 TEUs), while Savannah and Houston declined 16.9% and 15.8%, respectively.
West Coast ports notably regained share—rising from 38.1% in May to 45.4%—while East Coast and Gulf Coast ports dropped from 44.5% to 38.7%. This rebalancing aligns with the U.S.-China trade truce reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from April's 145% peak to 30% in mid-May, as China-sourced goods typically enter via Pacific-facing ports.
Collectively, the top 10 ports handled 84.1% of June imports (up from 82.6% in May), confirming their enduring role as critical trade hubs despite shifting patterns.
Expert Analysis and Future Outlook
June's import stabilization may prove temporary amid mounting global headwinds: economic slowdown risks, rising protectionism, and geopolitical tensions. Several critical factors warrant attention:
1. Trade Policy Uncertainty: The complex U.S.-China relationship means any tariff policy shifts could trigger further supply chain realignments.
2. Global Economic Risks: High inflation, rising interest rates, and geopolitical conflicts may dampen worldwide growth, subsequently affecting U.S. import demand.
3. Ongoing Supply Chain Adjustments: Diversification away from China will continue reshaping global trade patterns.
4. Port Congestion Risks: While currently improved, sudden demand spikes or disruptions could renew bottlenecks.
5. Digital Transformation: Investments in supply chain digitization will grow as companies prioritize efficiency and transparency to navigate volatility.
To compete effectively, U.S. importers must monitor policy changes closely, adapt supply chain strategies, enhance risk management, and embrace digital tools—all while Southeast Asia's role in global trade continues expanding.