Across America's vast highway network, massive trucks carrying essential goods form the arteries of commerce, connecting communities nationwide. However, when drivers cannot communicate effectively in English, safety risks multiply. The recent U.S. government crackdown on truckers' English proficiency has raised questions: Will this trigger a capacity crisis and send shipping rates soaring?
The answer might surprise you: short-term impacts appear negligible. Despite stricter visa policies and enhanced English proficiency enforcement for foreign truck drivers, freight rates show no signs of dramatic increases. Market demand remains the primary driver of pricing trends.
Policy Tightening: Safety First, Market Regulation
The Trump administration continues strengthening trucking industry oversight, with English proficiency requirements taking center stage. Key measures include:
- H-2B Visa Suspension: The State Department halted new H-2B visa issuances for commercial truck drivers, aiming to reduce non-English-proficient foreign drivers entering the U.S. market.
- Enhanced English Testing: Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announced stricter enforcement of English requirements for commercial truck operators. The American Trucking Associations (ATA) endorsed this as necessary for road safety and accountability.
- CVSA Rule Changes: The Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance (CVSA) modified guidelines to allow placing drivers out-of-service (OOS) for English Language Proficiency (ELP) violations. The alliance also petitioned to conduct all Commercial Driver's License (CDL) exams exclusively in English, potentially invalidating licenses obtained in other languages.
These policies stem from public safety concerns. ATA President Chris Spear emphasized that all U.S. commercial drivers must read road signs, communicate with law enforcement, and understand safety instructions. Permitting unqualified drivers, he argued, jeopardizes system integrity and public safety.
Capacity Impact: Minimal Short-Term Disruption
How significantly will these policies affect trucking capacity? Analysis suggests limited immediate consequences:
- Foreign drivers constitute over 15% of U.S. trucking personnel. Visa suspensions will slow new driver influx but show modest overall impact.
- Despite recent OOS order increases, approximately 2.1 million active interstate CDL holders continue operating.
- If ELP-violating drivers don't return within a year, only about 0.78% of target leased drivers would exit the workforce—an even smaller percentage under broader classifications.
Baird transportation analyst Daniel Moore noted that Senator Marco Rubio's visa suspension announcement highlighted threats to highway safety and American truckers' livelihoods from non-English-proficient foreign drivers.
Pricing Dynamics: Demand Remains Dominant
While stricter policies may gradually affect capacity, market demand continues steering freight rates. Current dry van spot rates linger near 2023 Q1 lows, with even peak season months failing to shift momentum toward carriers.
Freight rate increases historically follow demand surges, not supply constraints. Predictions that ELP enforcement would reshape pricing dynamics have proven inaccurate, with factors like:
- Sluggish demand from reduced container imports due to high tariffs
- DAT data showing dry van spot rates dipping after minor mid-2024 rebounds
Localized Effects: Border Regions Face Pressure
While national impacts remain slight, border areas—particularly Texas-Mexico crossings—experience noticeable disruptions:
- Since CVSA's late June enforcement began, ELP violations and OOS rates surged dramatically
- Breakthrough Research & Economics identifies concentrated violations along border routes causing localized capacity constraints
Enforcement Data: Dramatic Increase in OOS Orders
Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) statistics reveal striking enforcement changes:
- Weekly inspections rose 11.6% from 27,986 (2024 average) to 31,246 (Jan-July 2025)
- OOS rates for ELP violations skyrocketed from 0.1% to 25.7% post-enforcement—now affecting one in four cited drivers versus one per thousand previously
Long-Term Outlook: Monitoring Evolving Impacts
Projecting long-term consequences remains premature. Many carriers won't adjust hiring until directly affected by OOS designations. Current estimates suggest:
- Annual OOS designations could reach ~16,901 drivers based on current enforcement trends
- This represents under 1% of the 2.17 million active interstate CDL holders
As the industry adapts to these regulations, market observers will closely watch whether localized disruptions expand or stabilize in coming quarters.