As the peak summer shipping season fades, American importers may be sensing the first chill of an economic cooldown. A new Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates projects that U.S. container imports will decline through the remainder of this year, with the downward trend potentially extending through 2026.
Key Ports Under Watch
The report tracks activity at major U.S. gateways that serve as critical indicators of national import trends:
- Los Angeles/Long Beach
- Oakland
- Tacoma
- Seattle
- Houston
- New York/New Jersey
- Hampton Roads
- Charleston
- Savannah
- Miami
- Jacksonville
- Port Everglades (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.)
Understanding the Data
Analysts caution that container volumes don't directly correlate with retail sales or employment figures. While import quantities reflect goods entering the country, they don't indicate product values. However, these shipments serve as a rough proxy for retailers' expectations about future consumer demand.
The Tariff Effect
The trade landscape has grown increasingly complex. A federal appeals court recently ruled the White House's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act for tariff implementation unlawful, though the duties remain in effect during appeal. Meanwhile, planned November tariff increases on Chinese goods were postponed, while new 25% tariffs on Indian products took effect in August, bringing total U.S. duties on some Indian imports to 50%.
"We're seeing reciprocal tariffs implemented globally, with many major trading partners now facing rates exceeding previous 10% levels," said Jonathan Gold, NRF's vice president for supply chain and customs policy. "Retailers front-loaded inventories ahead of increases, but persistent trade policy uncertainty makes long-term planning impossible. These costs will ultimately translate to higher consumer prices."
Recent Volumes and Projections
July imports surged to 2.36 million TEU (20-foot equivalent units), marking a 20.1% monthly increase as companies raced to beat August tariff deadlines. This represented the second-highest monthly volume on record, trailing only May 2022's 2.4 million TEU.
However, the report forecasts steady declines:
- August: 2.28 million TEU (-1.7% year-over-year)
- September: 2.12 million TEU (-6.8%)
- October: 1.95 million TEU (-13.2%)
- November: 1.74 million TEU (-19.7%)
- December: 1.7 million TEU (-20.1%) - lowest since March 2023
For 2025, analysts anticipate full-year imports dropping 3.4% to 24.7 million TEU despite a projected first-half increase of 3.5%.
Broader Implications
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, observes that tariffs have evolved from trade remedies into broader policy tools: "The administration now applies them against allies and adversaries alike, fundamentally altering trade relationships."
Shipping lines are adjusting financial forecasts amid reduced global trade and vessel overcapacity, with several expecting Q4 losses. The combination of trade tensions, economic uncertainty, and supply chain disruptions suggests challenging conditions ahead for import-dependent businesses.