The recent energy crisis in Europe and soaring natural gas prices have drawn attention to the fragility of global supply chains. Meanwhile, in the United States, the intermodal market - a crucial component of logistics transportation - presents a complex picture of recovery and divergence.
Moderate Overall Growth Masks Structural Divergence
According to the latest data from the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA), US intermodal volumes showed modest recovery in August after widespread declines in July. However, this overall growth conceals sharply contrasting trends between container and trailer markets.
- Trailer volumes continue decline: Trailer volumes reached 72,223 units in August, representing a significant 25.6% year-over-year decrease. While this marked a slight improvement from July's 29.0% drop, trailers remain the only segment tracked by IANA showing consistent contraction.
- Domestic containers show resilience: Domestic container volumes grew 4.7% year-over-year to 698,252 units, demonstrating steady growth momentum.
- International containers post modest gains: International container (ISO) volumes increased 3.0% to 811,385 units, maintaining stable growth patterns.
The combined growth of domestic and international containers drove August's overall 2.0% intermodal volume increase to 1,581,860 units. However, when trailers and domestic containers are grouped as "domestic equipment," the combined growth rate drops to just 0.9%, highlighting the market's structural divergence.
Year-to-Date Performance: Overall Decline Persists
Expanding the timeframe reveals more concerning trends. Through the first eight months of 2022, US intermodal volumes totaled 12,010,490 units - a 4.2% year-over-year decline:
- Trailer volumes plummet: Trailer volumes fell 21.0% to 642,494 units, with the year-to-date decline exceeding August's monthly decrease.
- Domestic containers buck the trend: Domestic container volumes grew 4.3% to 5,504,843 units, standing out as a rare bright spot.
- International containers drag performance: International container volumes dropped 9.0% to 5,863,153 units, significantly contributing to the overall decline.
The "domestic equipment" category shows a 0.9% year-to-date decrease, further emphasizing persistent structural imbalances in the intermodal market.
Industry Outlook: Shifting Patterns and Fuel Price Impacts
IANA President and CEO Joni Casey noted that traditional peak season effects are diminishing, with freight patterns becoming more balanced. While the holiday season may bring volume increases, Casey emphasized this depends on resolving existing supply chain challenges.
Key factors influencing the intermodal market include:
- Inflation: While reducing consumer purchasing power, inflation may push businesses toward cost-efficient intermodal solutions for less time-sensitive shipments.
- Diesel prices: Sustained high diesel prices enhance intermodal's cost competitiveness versus trucking, potentially stimulating demand.
Market Challenges and Opportunities
Analysis reveals several critical insights about the US intermodal market:
- Despite August's modest recovery, significant downward pressure persists
- Structural divergences between market segments continue widening
- Complex external factors including inflation and fuel prices create both challenges and opportunities
- High diesel prices provide cost advantages but demand weakness remains a constraint
Strategic Recommendations for Market Participants
To navigate this evolving landscape, intermodal providers should consider:
- Implementing operational efficiencies through network optimization and load management
- Expanding service offerings with value-added logistics solutions
- Adopting digital technologies for enhanced visibility and resource allocation
- Strengthening partnerships across transportation modes
- Monitoring infrastructure and sustainability policy developments
As the US intermodal market undergoes significant transformation, companies demonstrating operational agility and strategic foresight will be best positioned to capitalize on emerging opportunities while managing ongoing challenges.