If global trade were a massive cargo ship, container throughput would serve as the barometer at its waterline. As the COVID-19 pandemic emerged unexpectedly, could this alter the vessel's course? What challenges does this present for U.S. retail supply chains? The latest Port Tracker Report , jointly released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates, provides answers by revealing the pandemic's potential long-term impact on U.S. consumer goods imports—particularly those sourced from China.
Report Overview
The monthly Port Tracker Report monitors cargo volumes at major U.S. retail container ports, analyzing throughput to provide retailers with early warnings about import trends and potential supply chain disruptions. The report covers these key ports:
- Los Angeles/Long Beach
- Oakland
- Tacoma
- Seattle
- Houston
- New York/New Jersey
- Hampton Roads
- Charleston
- Savannah
- Miami
- Jacksonville
- Port Everglades (Fort Lauderdale)
Importantly, container volumes don't directly correlate with retail sales or employment figures. The report emphasizes that container counts merely reflect the quantity of goods entering the U.S., not their actual value. However, import volumes can serve as a rough indicator of retailers' sales expectations.
Pandemic's Impact on Container Throughput
The report focuses primarily on how COVID-19 has affected Chinese factories. With extended Lunar New Year closures, U.S. retail container ports anticipate above-normal declines in February throughput. Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, notes that February typically sees lower imports due to the Lunar New Year and the gap between holiday and summer sales seasons. However, current circumstances remain exceptional.
"Many Chinese factories have remained closed longer than usual, and we don't yet know when they'll resume operations," Gold stated. "U.S. retailers had already begun shifting some sourcing to other countries due to the trade war, but prolonged shutdowns could significantly disrupt supply chains."
2019 Review and 2020 Projections
December 2019 saw U.S. ports handle 1.72 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs)—the most recent available data. This marked a 1.8% monthly increase but a 12.4% annual decline from December 2018, when retailers accelerated imports ahead of anticipated tariff hikes. For full-year 2019, ports processed 21.6 million TEUs, down 0.8% year-over-year but still the second-highest volume on record. The 2018 peak of 21.8 million TEUs resulted largely from retailers frontloading shipments before 2019 tariffs took effect.
Looking ahead, the report forecasts January 2020 at 1.82 million TEUs (down 3.8% year-over-year), February at 1.41 million TEUs (down 12.9%), and March at 1.46 million TEUs (down 9.5%). Pre-pandemic projections for February and March stood at 1.54 million and 1.70 million TEUs respectively—highlighting the outbreak's substantial negative impact.
Hackett's Trade Concerns
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, wrote: "Predicting container volumes becomes more challenging with COVID-19 spreading across Asia, Europe, and North America. The U.S.-China trade war directly reduced 2019 imports below 2018 levels, while threatened EU tariffs compounded the issue. Though the Phase One agreement may ease downward pressure, most existing tariffs remain—meaning trade war effects persist."
Hackett added that the virus' manufacturing disruptions could further depress global trade, potentially signaling deeper structural declines.
Mechanisms of Pandemic Impact
The pandemic affects U.S. container throughput through multiple channels:
- Production Halts: Factory closures and reduced output in China—the world's manufacturing hub—directly constrain goods availability.
- Logistical Bottlenecks: Port congestion, shipping delays, and trucking disruptions exacerbate supply chain issues even when goods are produced.
- Demand Reduction: Lower consumer confidence and spending lead retailers to scale back import orders.
- Substitution Effects: While retailers may shift sourcing to other countries, such transitions require time and cost, with alternative suppliers potentially unable to meet demand fully.
Retailer Response Strategies
U.S. retailers are implementing various countermeasures:
- Diversified Sourcing: Seeking suppliers in Southeast Asia, India, and Latin America to reduce China dependence.
- Inventory Buildup: Stockpiling goods to hedge against potential shortages.
- Supply Chain Optimization: Adopting new technologies and processes while strengthening logistics partnerships.
- Sales Strategy Adjustments: Modifying product offerings, pricing, and promotions to align with demand shifts.
Long-Term Implications
Even post-pandemic, supply chains may require extended recovery periods. The crisis could accelerate sourcing diversification and heighten focus on supply chain resilience. Future container volumes will depend on multiple factors—including pandemic progression, global economic growth, trade policies, and evolving consumer behavior—requiring retailers' vigilant monitoring and strategic adaptation.
Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainty
The Port Tracker Report underscores COVID-19's severe threat to U.S. retail supply chains. While container throughput represents just one metric, it reflects global trade's complexity and vulnerability. Facing unprecedented uncertainty, retailers must balance caution with innovation—reassessing supply chain strategies to build more sustainable, resilient operational models. This crisis presents both challenges and opportunities for transformative change.