Imagine the dawn of 2035: a vibrant landscape where trucks flow like steel rivers between cities and rural areas, carrying not just goods but economic vitality and boundless hope for future growth. The American Trucking Associations (ATA) has released a forecast report painting an optimistic picture, predicting significant expansion for the trucking industry over the next decade.
Despite recent declines in freight volumes across multiple transport modes, trucking remains the leader in both tonnage and revenue, underscoring its central role in the national economy. The ATA’s annual report, ATA Freight Transportation Forecast 2024–2035 , produced in collaboration with S&P Global Market Intelligence, highlights a golden era of growth ahead. It projects a 1.6% increase in truck freight volume for 2024, soaring to nearly 1.4 billion tons by 2035—a resounding vote of confidence for the sector.
Trucking: The Backbone of the U.S. Economy
Trucking is indispensable to the U.S. economy, handling over 70% of freight. This dominance reflects its critical influence on industries ranging from raw material transport to retail distribution. The ATA’s findings, grounded in rigorous market analysis, outline key trends:
- Tonnage Growth: Total truck freight tonnage is expected to rise from 11.27 billion tons in 2024 to 13.99 billion by 2034, capturing 76.8% of the freight market by 2035.
- Revenue Growth: Industry revenue is projected to climb from $906 billion in 2024 to $1.46 trillion by 2035, signaling both volume expansion and operational efficiency gains.
- Other Transport Modes: Rail’s share will dip from 10.6% to 9.9% due to declining coal shipments, while intermodal rail grows 2.9% before 2030 and 2.8% thereafter. Air, domestic waterborne, and pipeline transport will also see tonnage increases.
Industry Leaders Weigh In
ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello emphasized trucking’s enduring dominance: "Trucking leads in both tonnage (72.7%) and revenue (76.9%) in 2024, a position we expect to hold steady as the U.S. continues relying on trucks for the majority of freight."
ATA President Chris Spear underscored the report’s strategic value: "Knowledge is power. Understanding supply chain trends is vital for policymakers shaping the future of trucking and the broader economy."
Trucking: The Alpha and Omega of Supply Chains
Despite the complexity of modern supply chains—spanning digital brokers, last-mile delivery, and AI—trucking remains the common thread, often serving as both the starting and ending point for freight movement. This report reaffirms that reality.
Navigating Uncertainty
In an era marked by economic unpredictability, trucking faces both challenges and opportunities. Innovation—from autonomous vehicles to AI-driven logistics—will be pivotal in maintaining efficiency and competitiveness.
Key Takeaways from the Forecast
The report identifies several growth drivers:
- Economic Expansion: Moderate GDP growth will fuel freight demand.
- Consumer Spending: Rising disposable incomes will boost retail and trucking volumes.
- Manufacturing Reshoring: U.S. policy incentives are bringing production home, increasing domestic freight needs.
- Infrastructure Investment: Improved roads and ports will enhance efficiency.
Challenges include labor shortages, environmental regulations, and supply chain security, requiring strategic responses from industry leaders.
Conclusion: A Golden Decade Ahead
The ATA’s forecast envisions a thriving trucking industry by 2035, anchored by economic tailwinds and technological progress. While hurdles remain, proactive measures—from workforce development to sustainability initiatives—can secure trucking’s role as the linchpin of U.S. commerce.