Introduction: The Logistics Cost Dilemma and Warehouse Strategy Transformation
In today's fast-paced business environment, companies face unprecedented competitive pressures. Rapid market changes and accelerated product cycles demand faster inventory turnover, while persistently high logistics costs continue to squeeze profit margins. This paradox forces businesses to reevaluate their warehousing strategies and seek more efficient, flexible logistics solutions.
A recent CBRE report reveals profound changes in the U.S. industrial real estate leasing market. Third-party logistics (3PL) providers have emerged as dominant players, while retailers and e-commerce companies that once led the market are quietly retreating from center stage.
Part 1: The 3PL Surge: A New Dominant Force
1.1 Market Overview: 3PLs Outpace Retail and E-commerce
The CBRE report shows that in the first half of 2025, 3PL providers accounted for 38 of the top 100 industrial real estate leases, totaling 28.9 million square feet (MSF). This represents significant growth from 28 leases in the same period last year and far exceeds retail and e-commerce companies.
| Participant Type | Number of Leases | Total Leased Area (MSF) | Market Share (by area) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3PL | 38 | 28.9 | 45.4% |
| Retail & Wholesale | 28 | 21.4 | 33.6% |
| E-commerce | 7 | 4.7 | 7.4% |
| Other | 27 | 8.6 | 13.5% |
1.2 Driving Factors: Corporate Outsourcing Fuels 3PL Growth
CBRE identifies large corporations outsourcing more of their warehousing and supply chain operations as the key driver behind 3PL leasing demand. In an increasingly competitive market, businesses require more efficient and flexible logistics solutions that 3PLs are uniquely positioned to provide.
Several factors explain this outsourcing trend:
Cost Reduction: Building in-house logistics requires substantial capital investment in facilities, equipment, and personnel. Outsourcing to 3PLs converts fixed costs to variable expenses.
Operational Efficiency: 3PLs bring specialized expertise and advanced technology that often surpasses what individual companies can develop internally.
Enhanced Flexibility: Outsourcing allows businesses to scale operations up or down based on seasonal demand and market conditions.
Supply Chain Optimization: 3PLs integrate across supply chains, creating efficiencies that individual companies struggle to achieve alone.
Part 2: Retail and E-commerce: Fading Dominance
2.1 Market Shift: Dramatic Decline in Leasing Activity
Retail and wholesale companies signed just 28 leases totaling 21.4 MSF in H1 2025, while e-commerce companies signed only 7 leases for 4.7 MSF - a 64.4% year-over-year decline from 31 leases (13.2 MSF) in H1 2024.
2.2 E-commerce Recalibration
After years of aggressive expansion, many e-commerce companies are reevaluating their operational models. The high costs and risks of maintaining proprietary logistics networks, coupled with the need for more sophisticated fulfillment capabilities, are driving more online retailers to outsource to 3PL specialists.
Part 3: Warehouse Size Trends: Caution Prevails
3.1 Shrinking Footprints
Leases for warehouses exceeding 1 million square feet dropped to just 13 transactions (15.5 MSF) in H1 2025, down from 31 leases (34.5 MSF) in the same period last year - a 55.1% decline.
This reflects growing corporate caution amid economic uncertainty and rising rents, with tenants opting for smaller, more flexible spaces.
Part 4: Regional Variations: Top Performing Markets
4.1 Market Leaders
Southern California's Inland Empire led with 14 leases (9.8 MSF), followed by Pennsylvania's I-78/I-81 corridor (9 leases, 6.3 MSF) and Dallas-Fort Worth (7 leases, 5.8 MSF). These regions offer strategic locations, robust infrastructure, and transportation advantages that support efficient distribution.
Part 5: Expert Perspective: A Lasting Transformation
5.1 The Outsourcing Imperative
"Retailers and wholesalers are outsourcing at an accelerated pace to reduce capital expenditures, gain flexibility for seasonal inventory flows, and focus on core competencies rather than product distribution," explained James Breeze, CBRE's Global Head of Industrial & Retail Research.
5.2 Long-Term Outlook
Breeze anticipates 3PLs will continue gaining market share as product distribution grows more specialized and technologically demanding. "Outsourcing to experts provides both operational advantages and risk mitigation during uncertain economic periods," he noted.
The analyst predicts growth in mega-warehouse leases will increasingly come from 3PLs rather than traditional retailers, while e-commerce's leasing decline directly correlates with rising 3PL adoption.
Part 6: Strategic Implications
The data reveals an industrial real estate market undergoing fundamental transformation. For corporations, partnering with 3PL providers offers a path to reduce costs, enhance efficiency, and gain supply chain flexibility critical for competitive advantage.
When selecting 3PL partners, companies should carefully evaluate service capabilities, technological sophistication, and alignment with business requirements. Building long-term collaborative relationships can yield ongoing process improvements and mutual benefits.
As market dynamics continue evolving, maintaining awareness of industrial real estate trends will help businesses make informed decisions about their distribution networks and warehousing strategies.