The DAT Truckload Volume Index (TVI), published by DAT Freight & Analytics, serves as a crucial barometer for measuring freight market activity in the United States. This standardized index tracks monthly changes in truckload freight volumes, providing reliable insights into market trends by eliminating distortions from varying data sources.
Definition, Methodology, and Significance
Definition
The DAT TVI represents a time-series index that quantifies activity levels in the U.S. truckload freight market. It measures volume changes for dry van, refrigerated, and flatbed truckloads transported by full truckload carriers.
Calculation Methodology
The index is calculated through a rigorous process:
- Data Collection: Aggregates freight data from carriers, brokers, and shippers
- Data Processing: Cleanses and standardizes raw data to remove inconsistencies
- Index Computation: Calculates monthly indices using standardized methodologies
- Benchmarking: Uses January 2015 as the base period (index = 100)
Economic Significance
The TVI serves multiple analytical purposes:
- Acts as an economic health indicator
- Facilitates market trend forecasting
- Assesses capacity-supply dynamics
- Supports strategic decision-making across the supply chain
Component Breakdown
The composite index comprises three specialized sub-indices:
Dry Van TVI
Tracks general freight volumes for temperature-neutral goods
Reefer TVI
Monitors temperature-controlled shipments (food, pharmaceuticals)
Flatbed TVI
Measures oversized/industrial cargo movements (construction materials, machinery)
January 2024 Market Analysis
Key Findings
The latest TVI report reveals paradoxical market conditions:
- Record-high spot market volumes driven by extreme weather disruptions
- Significant month-over-month increases across all equipment types
- Truck-to-load ratios reaching unprecedented levels
- Spot rates showing unusual seasonal strength
Notable Metrics
- Dry Van TVI: 250 (↑11% MoM, ↑6% YoY)
- Reefer TVI: 206 (↑14% MoM, ↑1% YoY)
- Flatbed TVI: 232 (↑11% MoM, ↑6% YoY)
- Spot Rates: $2.14/mile (dry van), $2.57/mile (reefer), $2.47/mile (flatbed)
Market Interpretation
DAT Chief Analyst Ken Adamo cautions against interpreting the January surge as economic recovery:
"The polar vortex created artificial capacity constraints that temporarily inflated volumes and rates. We anticipate normalization as weather patterns stabilize and seasonal patterns reassert themselves."
Economic Implications
The TVI's economic relevance spans multiple dimensions:
Macroeconomic Indicators
- Correlates strongly with GDP growth trajectories
- Serves as leading indicator for inflationary pressures
- Reflects employment trends in transportation sectors
Industry Impacts
- Influences carrier profitability and operational strategies
- Affects broker margins and service offerings
- Determines shippers' transportation budgeting
Determinants of TVI Fluctuations
Multiple factors drive index movements:
Macroeconomic Drivers
- GDP growth rates
- Consumer spending patterns
- Industrial production levels
Sector-Specific Factors
- Manufacturing output
- Retail inventory cycles
- Construction activity
- Agricultural harvests
External Variables
- Weather disruptions
- Regulatory changes
- Technological innovations
- Geopolitical events
Analytical Limitations
While valuable, the TVI has several constraints:
- Partial market coverage
- Methodological simplifications
- Reporting lag times
- Regional aggregation
Future Developments
Anticipated enhancements to the index include:
- Expanded data partnerships
- Refined calculation methodologies
- Real-time reporting capabilities
- Geographic segmentation
- Cross-index integration